Bitcoin’s recovery rally stalls as traders turn focus to $45,000

Bitcoin is in jeopardy of snapping its longest winning streak in more than four months as traders question whether the bounce-back from recent lows was too fast, too soon.

The world’s largest digital currency by market value lost as much as 2.1 per cent on Tuesday to trade at $43,178 before turning mostly little changed. Other tokens also declined, with an index of 100 coins dropping 2.3 per cent at one point.

That follows a big start to the week, which had seen Bitcoin crossing above $44,000.

“Today’s pullback is due to some profit-taking after a big move,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “Bitcoin had rallied about 38 per cent on an intraday basis in less than two weeks, so I think it’s just a matter of traders taking some short-term profits.”

Bitcoin has moved above its trend-line from its November highs, so it has plenty of room to take a breather over the near-term without disrupting its recent advance, he added.

Analysts have noted that cryptocurrencies have lately been moving in tandem with other riskier assets, including US stocks – and that relationship was apparent in January, when both asset classes saw a lot of volatility, according to a report from Kraken.

“With a hawkish shift from the Fed, continued omicron fears, lower stock valuations, and inflation fears at a multi-decade high, crypto remains vulnerable to derisking should equity markets correct in the coming month(s),” said the report.

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, is tracking something called the monthly MACD momentum gauge for Bitcoin. That measure had been showing a “buy” signal since July of 2020 but crossed over to “sell” at the end of January, she noted in Fairlead’s “Cryptocurrency Compass” report.

“It tells us that this year could see more volatility, and it means we need to be more short-term oriented when committing to long positions,” she said.

Amid its advance this week – which saw the coin rising above its 50-day moving average, Bitcoin found resistance at $45,000, which also happened to be the area where it breached the upper band of its trading envelope. That typically suggests the rally went too far, too quick.

“One of the things crypto does not have going for it is there may be a relatively fixed set of investors and those investors may be finding themselves expecting to be somewhat less liquid,” Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, said by phone. “There’s not going to be unlimited liquidity from the Fed anymore, and if we have the money-supply contracting, if we have interest rates rising, it will tend to make things like crypto less attractive.”